Week 7 Match Preview by IM Mark Ginsburg

Thank ye, thank ye, good to be hither.

From the USCL website, the tale of the tape for Arizona’s week 7 match:

Arizona plays white on boards 1 and 3.  Due to some obscure rule, the Mechanoids play white on boards 2 and 4.

Robby predicts, “Arizona Scorpions vs. San Francisco Mechanics
Let’s see – I picked against them last time (though I really didnt). Lets try sort of picking them again – ok thats dumb. AZ wins.”    This is a toughie – a veritable Minotaur’s Maze to predict.

The Minotaur's Maze

Well, we can attempt a prediction. Let’s try the board by board method and thorougly confound matters with a heavy dose of perplexing Alburtian percentages. You might also like a quick video preview.

Board 1. Our RoBa, fresh from a nice spanking of IM Ippolito, looks to revert to form after a couple of losses to Nakamura and Bercys.  His opponent, though, is a very tough and experienced international competitor, GM Vinay Bhat aka VB aka Visual Basic. I am very impressed with how VB calmly makes a move on a physical board then deliberately wheels himself around in a chair to then duplicate that same move on a computer screen, even when low on time.  Nerves of steel!   RoBa is very opportunistic and usually has a time advantage, but VB usually does not let a time disadvantage lead to his defeat.  RoBa is very tactical but Visual Basic is no slouch at calculation – an excellent matchup.  This USCL time limit does work well for RoBa though unless he falls into a Naka funk and plays something he’s not familiar with.  In summary, as GM Alburt used to say, “75% chance of draw”.  For a decisive result, the other 25% I divide up equally between the two players.

Board 2. Here we field a mystery man, never before seen in USCL play, IM Dionisio Aldama aka Aldo Nova aka Freshmeat aka New Guy.  At tournaments, I’ve only seen Aldama’s games from a distance and they are often sharp.  He is playing black against Joe Solid, or should I say John Solid, IM Donaldson.  I note Freshmeat’s relatively high rating but cannot speak to his USCL skills – although he does ICC blitz a lot.  Does that help?  Maybe.  John is not “Danger Man” to use European tournament parlance and is not terribly ambitious in his opening schemes.  It is a question of whether our mystery man will meet him on solid terms or go all out for a black victory which can, as we know, sometimes not work out.  As GM Alburt would say, “perhaps a napkin” (GM Alburt’s introductory ‘food order’ at a communal Lone Pine lunch).  What else would Alburt say?  “60% chance of draw.”  For the other 40%, we’ll have to give some credence to New Guy’s relatively high rating but also note that John is white and New Guy might go nuts trying to combat some sleepy-time system.  Let’s give John Solid 15% of the decisive pie and Freshmeat 25%. I would hasten to add that it’s important for us to learn New Guy’s favorite food and drink ahead of time and provide them at the playing site.

Breaking news:  New Guy is blitzing on ICC Tuesday at noon vs. IM Cyrus Lakdawala. And I learned something, he has an extra name “Degournay”!

Statistics for maton(IM)         On for: 2:25     Idle:    0
maton is currently involved in a match against Kawas(IM).

rating [need] win  loss  draw total   best
Wild            1779  [6]     1     1     0     2
Crazyhouse      2082  [6]     0     1     0     1
Bullet          2126  [8]    35    41     4    80   2181 (06-Aug-2002)
Blitz           2388  [4]  1753  1839   269  3861   2998 (06-Jun-2003)
5-minute        2345       1389   887   193  2469   2544 (12-Oct-2009)
1-minute        2001      12195 11150   919 24264   2381 (21-Jan-2004)
15-minute       1300          4     3     0     7

Name   : Dionisio Aldama Degournay
Groups : Mexico IMs

Board 3. Here we see a newly minted IM, Danny “Statistical” (“Stat”) Rensch, go against Lil’ Talent, Daniel (Danya) Naroditsky, aka Shortbread. I’ve watched Danya’s chess improve palpably over the last few years and it is a pleasure to behold.  No more g4?? butcheries such as a 2008 Shortbread-Angelo Young game best forgotten. Instead, clean, logical chess and better opening prep.  From Stat, likewise, we see more confidence following the IM result at the Spice cup.  He held a tough game against Molnar last week and this has to be a confidence booster after his bad luck early in this season and last season. On Stat’s side, statistically unseen numeric forces are at work to improve his USCL record to date.

I do know this:  these two guys are very sharp and we will be looking at a crazy tactical battle here.  And Stat is much better with white than black.  OTOH (on the other hand), Shortbread has shown excellent prep as black in recent times.  It will be a battle royale to be sure.  To quote Boris Spassky, we have here “drunken machine gunners.”  Boris meant the players fling pieces around and que sera, sera.  At the time, (historical note), Spassky was referring to Swedish wild man GM Ferdinand Hellers.

Shortbread was on the wrong side of a drunken machine gunner in the NY – SF match and I am sure he is looking to correct his ledger in that sort of game.    I would only award this game a 30% peace proportion, and for the remaining 70%, I will give Stat a very slight nod 36% to 34% over Lil’ Talent simply because he is white.

In case you are wondering what happens if BOTH players are drunken machine gunners – well then we have a classic DDMG (Double Drunken Machine Gunner) battle.  The victor is usually the more ‘drunk’ (you can take this to mean utterly random) player. – cf. the Fernandez-Zaikov USCL game from this week’s action

Board 4. Here we have David Adelberg aka Kid Cactus aka Astroboy (“I was made ready!”) playing black against another kid, Gregory “Youngster” Young aka G-Yo.  I was unfamiliar with G-Yo’s  play and looked up his USCL games.  He has a pretty good score but one time fell into a sweet tactic and got mated in the opening vs NM Chris Williams. Did you happen to notice the opening in that debacle?  It was a foxy Sicilian Kan!  Kan Konquers Kiddies because the positional complexities required to handle the white side are usually far beyond the pale of the kiddie tactician. I also found another, fairly bizarre, effort of his in a Dragon.  He held that game, but his opponent Zorigt was one of Astroboy’s victims this season. And, as we all know, young David has been a revelation and a tremendous addition to Arizona’s team this year on the bottom board.  Well, it looks like it’s going to be a Kiddie Najdorf. since that is what Kid Cactus plays and it looks like G-Yo always sticks with Open Sicilians.  I am not sure who Ehlvest’s handlers are in Tennesse, but they should tell him “don’t play into Kiddie Najdorfs!”  He would have come out of the opening better against Ludwig if he had avoided theory altogether. There’s a time for theory, Jaan, and a time for understanding.  The USCL with its fast time limit should be a forum to claim superiority based on understanding, not whip out oodles of theory – unless we have two juniors playing and then it’s practically inevitable – cf. this board 4 encounter.  OTOH, if I had to make one Caissic wish, it would be that Astroboy retools and whips out a Kan!   Kiddie can ken* Kan!

* Ken (v): Chiefly Scot.

It’s funny how tight matches often come down to a fourth board that is utterly unpredictable before the first move. Kiddie temperaments and energy at the board wax and wane** frequently; there is no way to know  who will be more engrossed in chess iron logic when the moment comes to fight – truly Chaos On Board. And once again Board 4 might be the crucial matchup! As Lev Alburt would say, “only 20% chance draw.”  I would divide up the decisive portion almost equally between these two young combatants. I will say Kid Cactus 38% and Gregory 42% as a nod to G-Yo’s  master rating.  Dateline Weds.: Incredible postscript:  Kid Cactus just became a NM after the LA Open.  So now it’s dead heat, 40% to both!

** Wax and wane: Increase and decrease, as in size, number, strength, or intensity, as in Enrollments in these programs wax and wane from year to year. This expression alludes to the phases of the moon, with its periodic changes in size. It was first recorded in the 1300s.

And Did You Know?

To make absolutely sure that you learn something from this post, I recently visited a Harley dealership and complained that my 883 custom “Sunglo Red” paint job was distinctly less lustrous than new.  The mechanic brought out a bottle of “Throttle Body” (a product made by Würth Industries).  “Throttle Body”, dear readers, is an amazing automotive and motorcycle cleaning product!  An arbitrary tidbit?  No!  I first rode dearly departed “Wild Black”, a CB750, on the streets of San Francisco getting tangled up with the cable car groove on Market St.  And Arizona is playing SF… well, you get the picture . Now go out and buy your own “Throttle Body” and let the USCL games begin.