47.b3? Kd4 48.Bg2 still loses, I think, to 48…f3!.
(A) 49.Bxf3 c3+ 50.Kc1 Ke3 51.Bd1 (only way to keep in touch with the e2 square) c2 52.Bxc2 dxc2 53.Kxc2 Kf4, and Black’s king picks up the kingside.
(B) 49.Bf1 f2, and White can’t handle the passed b-, d-, and f-pawns. After 50.bxc4 b3 51.Bxd3 b2, his pieces are overloaded.

I think 47.g5 wins, though, instead of 47.b3?. And of course, 46.gxf4+ was simpler.

Vinay

Here I am in the luxurious commentary room filled with dozens of delicious cupcakes and nobody is yet here. Although there are 10 minutes before the match starts. Hurry!

It’s pretty funny, the real issue is how can black activate his kingside pawns? This is done with the aesthetic Rb8!! idea Rb3-Rf3. That idea puts white under heavy pressur. It’s instructive how black’s king does not participate for the moment, but in many structures after Rb8-b3-f3 it can run up and assist. The maneuver ending with Rf3 frees up the black f-pawn to advance, after which the f4-e4 pawn are a formidable duo.

This also makes me wonder since we have opposite colored Bishops as the only minor pieces whether the position is a draw or whether Black can convert his extra 2 pawns to victory.

I would probably play 1…Bc4. The idea is the following. I think the most testing reply is 2.Rc1. Here I foresee the following:

1…Bc4 2.Rc1 Bb5 3.Bxc7 a6 and the unpleasant pin along the c-file plus the passed a-pawn give Black good game. So the following line is perhaps better for White:

Instead of 3.Bxc7, we have 3.Rxc7. Here if Black exchanges rook, it’s probably drawish. So Black should probably play 3…Ra8. The idea is that checks against the Black king detract White from the goal of blocking the passed pawn. So after 3.Bxc7 Ra8 4.Rg7+ Kf8 5.Rxh7 a4, White’s rook is out of game and if 6.Rh8+, we have 6…Bg8 7.Bd6+ Kf7. You don’t want to exchange rooks because it’s harder to push the passed pawn then.

So where does that leave White? 2.Rc1 with the idea of capturing the c7 pawn may not be such a good idea after all. But then if White plays anything else, then Black has kept his two pawn-lead and improved the position of his pieces. If white just sits there and does nothing, he will follow with …Bb4, …c6, …Ra8, ..a5-a4.

Of course, I may be wrong about all this! So let me know how well I did!

As far as the predictions, this is a tough match for Arizona all the way around. Although I’m a west coast guy, I think that team Orange will beat team cactus. 2.5 – 1.5 (0.5-0.5, 0-1, 1-0, 1-0)