The third week of Predictions between the Managers is below! The scores after the first week were tied 19-19 but after the second week’s disastrous result from myself (Leo) the score is now Leo 36 – Craig 42.  Good luck trying to criticize these predictions!

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Welcome to the 2009 United States Chess League!  I will be providing predictions on all of the matches each week (though I may duck predicting for the Arizona Scorpions some weeks, since I might be biased).  Please note in my predictions that I do not mean to be too critical of any team or player on a particular match – just one person’s thoughts. Without further ado, here are the predictions for Week 1.

Queens Pioneers v. Boston Blitz

Boston has a nice average rating advantage in this match (2461 to 2401). A nice GM match-up on board 1 with Alexander Stripunsky vs. Larry Christiansen. As happens so often in a game between 2 strong GM’s, the game can be a push. I think Queens needs a victory from Stripunsky in order to win the match. GM Perelshteyn with white against IM Eli Vovsha gives Boston the upper hand. On Board 3, IM Marc Esserman has a rating edge against FM Andrei Zaremba, but Andrei has white, so this is probably a push. Board 4 features expert Shaun Smith and youngster, Andrew Wang – this game might well decide the match. Boston wins 2.5-1.5

Miami Sharks v. Dallas Destiny

Miami has a big advantage both in strength (GM vs. IM), and color (Julio has white). I am looking forward to seeing what GM Julio Becerra plays against IM John Bartholomew’s world-famous Scandinavian Defense (1.e4 d5 2.ed Qd5). Board 2 features new UTD student and USCL rookie, Daniel Ludwig against  FM Bruci Lopez. White has a strength advantage and has white, so I give Ludwig the edge. Comparing just boards 1 and 2, I think Miami has a small edge. With board 3, Eric Rodriguez has white against FM Keaton Kiewra, who has not played in a while. Keaton is known for good preparation, so it will be interesting to see how this game goes. Finally, Nelson Lopez has color and slight rating advantage over Miguel Recio, someone I know nothing about. Overall, I think Miami has a very small edge here, though a tie would not surprise me. I predict a tie.

San Francisco Mechanics v. Seattle Sluggers

In the final Monday match of the night, San Francisco catches a break against the Nakamura-less Seattle Sluggers. With that being said, Seattle actually out-rates San Francisco  – something that I don’t think matters for this match. Pruess is at a ridiculously low rating of 2410, and having Donaldson on board 3 is as good as its going to get, even though he is facing FM Michael Lee. Board 4 features the debut of SF’s newest master, twelve year old, Yian Liou. Overall, I predict a 2-2 tie.

New York Knights v. New Jersey Knockouts

Upon a quick look at this first match of Wednesday, I was amazed at how stacked and high rated NY is. Kacheisvili v Benjamin is a great board 1 match-up, and Pascal Charbonneau on board 2 is quite strong, especially when Pascal has played board 1 many times. What is interesting is that Yaacov Norowitz on board 4 is now higher rated than their board 3, though of course not per the rating list used by NY. With a rating edge on boards 1 and 2, the Shen brothers are going to have to come up big for NJ. I predict NY wins 3-1.

Carolina Cobras v. Baltimore Kingfishers

Carolina by default has to resort to a balanced lineup (Boards 1-4 all within 150 pts of each other) while Baltimore sports GM Kritz, not an easy match for IM Schroer, as well IM Enkhbat, GM Larry Kaufman (Board 3!), and an expert on board 4. For out-ranked Carolina to have a chance, there will be a lot of pressure on the bottom boards (All-Star Ron Simpson and Craig Jones), and Oleg Zaikov will have to continue his incredible USCL success. I predict Carolina falls a little short in this one, and loses 2.5-1.5.

Philadelphia Inventors v. Tennessee Tempo

Philly has upgraded a lot since their disappointing season last year, with abnormally high rated players on boards 2 and 3 (GM Lenderman and IM Bryan Smith). The always dangerous GM Alexander Shabalov will have to carry the day for Tennessee since they are out-ranked on boards 2 and 3. Philly wins 2.5-1.5.

Arizona Scorpions v. Chicago Blaze

Arizona welcomes GM Alejandro Ramirez to board 1, while IM Levon Altounian moves down to board 2. Arizona welcomes the first junior and almost master, twelve year old David Adelberg to the team. Chicago features a balanced lineup lead by GM Mitkov, and 2 IM’s. Arizona wins a squeaker, 2.5-1.5.

SUMMARY OF WEEK 1 PREDICTIONS

Queens Pioneers v. Boston Blitz            Boston wins 2.5-1.5.

Miami Sharks v. Dallas Destiny               Tie 2-2.

San Francisco v. Seattle Sluggers           Tie 2-2.

NY Knights v. New Jersey Knockouts   NY Knights wins 3-1

Carolina Cobras v. Baltimore Kingfishers    Baltimore wins 2.5-1.5

Philadelphia Inventory v. TN Tempo     Philly wins 2.5-1.5

AZ Scorpions v. Chicago Blaze                  Arizona wins 2.5-1.5

A quick look at the matchups for Week 7.

Monday Matchups:

1. Boston Blitz vs New York Knights

Boston bounces back to beat NY – Boston wins 2.5-1.5.

2. Queens Pioneers vs New Jersey Knockouts

NJ hands Queens its 2nd loss in a row. Gulko on 2nd board is a bigger edge for NJ than Lenderman on 3rd vs Ippolito. NJ knocks out Queens 2.5-1.5.

3. Tennessee Tempo vs Chicago Blaze

I picked Tennessee to win 2 straight weeks, but without Ehlvest, Chicago wins 3-1.

4. San Francisco Mechanics vs Seattle Sluggers

Big match for Seattle with the G-Double Lineup. Going safe here, Seattle and San Fran battle to a tie 2-2.

Wednesday Matchups:

5. Baltimore Kingfishers vs Carolina Cobras

Carolina can put a stamp on their playoff ticket with a win – it doesnt happen this week. Yes, another tie match. Baltimore and Carolina fight to a 2-2 tie.

6. Dallas Destiny vs Philadelphia Inventors

Dallas faces a tough lineup this week against a Philly team that might creep back into playoff contention, and draws Philly 2-2. In much better and more exciting news, the Phillies beat Milwaukee!

7. Arizona Scorpions vs Miami Sharks

AZ wins 2.5-1.5. Go Scorpions!

A very quick look at Week 6

Monday Matches:

AZ over San Francisco 2.5-1.5 (Isnt a Scorpion more threatening than a Mechanic? Go Scorpions!

Seattle over NY 3-1 (2 GMs (Nakaserper) is greater than 1 GM (Fedorowicz) Therefore Seattle wins)

Wednesday Matches:

Carolina ties Queens 2-2 (Carolina may win this one, especially because of Queens’ weaker than usual lineup)

NJ over Baltimore 2.5-1.5 (NJ is loaded and will show their stuff against a struggling Baltimore team)

Boston over Philly 2.5-1.5 (Philly has a chance here if Kudrin can defeat Jorge, if not, turn out the lights on the Inventors, and say “Hello Phillies”)

Miami ties Chicago 2-2 (This should be a very competitive match – both teams need it)

Tennessee over Dallas 2.5-1.5 (TN really has a great chance to win this match, given the great success of the Ehlvesanator.

Until next week….

Here is Danny’s analysis of the Week 5 match with the Carolina Cobras (For Mark Ginsburg’s recap click here):

Levon Altounian vs. Lev Milman U.S. Chess League Week #5 Carolina vs. Arizona

Honestly I found this game hard to read for the majority of the opening and middle game. I would venture to guess that Levon got what he wanted: A position with a slight pull that offers Black very limited ability to change the structure and make it wild. However, as a spectator I was worried about Levon’s time disadvantage throughout. I will admit that I myself have something to learn about Increment Based Time Controls and how this affects both time management and preparation. I especially feel that way after watching Levon (and Robby last week against Andrews) trail a significant amount on time for the majority of the game, but still increase their advantages comfortably to eventually achieve clearly winning positions. This was the case in Levon’s game and after the move 46.Bb5, it seemed to be only a matter of technique for Levon, especially when I considered that Lev Milman was now the player down on time. Unfortunately however, we started to see some of the effects of converting a winning, but complicated position, “on line”. I think I am in the majority with my feelings that Levon would never have missed a mate in two (available to him after Black played Qh6 on move 56) in a live game. Obviously Kramnik missed mate in one not too long ago, so I guess it happens, but needless to say, not winning this game was a tough break for the Scorpions!

Oleg Zaikov vs. Mark Ginsburg U.S. Chess League Week #5 Carolina vs. Arizona

Viewing the game live, I had a much better feel for the position than I did in Levon’s game. Mark’s opening choice was something I have played before, and it was therefore more familiar to me. I felt he handled the position very well even after Zaikov’s rare choice of 9.g3. Technically, 9.g3 has been played before (one time according to my database) but the question is whether or not Zaikov was really prepared for this “new idea and approach” to the position, or if he just didn’t quite know the line that well. My guess is the former, but judging by his time-management, maybe he did make the whole thing up over the board. Who knows? With that perspective in mind (the one where we assume Zaikov prepared this line with 9.g3) I have to give Oleg credit for his choice and even his lash out move 16.f4!?. The position remained unclear for sometime, but from a practical perspective: A young underdog against an experienced International Master; Zaikov did exactly what he needed to do to win. He applied pressure. Despite Mark’s accurate defense (and Mark did do a good job dealing with the tactics and shooting down tricks), once time pressure began to play a role, Mark blundered and lost immediately. This was obviously a critical game and even in hindsight, I don’t think Mark could have played much better (some small improvements to the defense might have been 23…Re8 or even the aggressive 23…Qxa3) but over all Zaikov “won” the game more than Mark “lost it”. Taking the “unbiased Rybka approach” you might say “well, if Mark had only played 31…Rg6 instead of 31…Qd1+?? He would have most likely drawn”. Although that is true, given the circumstances of Mark’s time pressure and Zaikov’s attacking chances, unless Mark was going to take the draw right then, it was still going to be a hard game for Black. Mark will avenge himself this week against David Pruess of the San Francisco Auto Mechanics or whatever!

Robby Adamson vs. Ron Simpson U.S. Chess League Week #5 Carolina vs. Arizona

Despite my previous accusations, Ron is not related to Bart or Homer in any way…J In all seriousness though; this game was another tough break for the Scorps. Robby was the favorite in this game and he had White. After taking Ned Flanders bad advice, Mr. Simpson chose the dubious 7…Bg4?! (Which I guess is hard to call dubious given that no other move helps the line anyway). My guess: Ron was planning on a repeat of the game Gufeld-Balinas, Las Vegas U.S. Senior Cup 1995 which although reads 1-0 in the database, was a wild and crazy affair in which Black had really good attacking chances. Robby made the right decision with 8.Bd5, but he should have captured on c6 and gone into the game quoted above with 10. Nxe5 instead of 10.d4. Then, even if White doesn’t want the complications that occur after 14.Nd2 and 15.Qxg7, 14.f4 (Rybka) seems to give White a slight pull. Nonetheless, after Robby missed this opportunity out of the opening it still seemed as though his “veteran savvy” might pull off a surprising win in the rook ending (Lord knows he should know something about them by now). Although it doesn’t seem to offer much, in a practical sense I think Robby needed to play more actively with a move like 43. Rb8, although I must admit as long as Mr. Simpson doesn’t stray too far from Springfield he should be fine. In the end it wasn’t destined to be for Robz to get the win, and he settled on a draw after 76 moves of fighting.

Craig Jones vs. Warren Harper U.S. Chess League Week #5 Carolina vs. Arizona

I personally had a lot of anticipation in this game as I knew that Warren’s first two showings in the League were not a good example of his true strength. (Let’s hope the same is so for me this week against Shankland right.) Curiously enough in this game, Craig played 9.g3 just as Zaikov played 9.g3 against Ginsburg: Coincidence? I think NOT! I am on to Carolina’s little game, and whoever plays them next week should look into this little 9.g3 shenanigan! Anyway, a typical Queen’s Indian was reached and they followed the game Sjodahl-Wessman Sundsvall 1989, until Craig varied with 16.dxc6. It is unclear whether or not that move was an improvement for Craig, and it seems to me that at that point Black already has a comfortable position. Warren’s defense, as his kingside became open, was impressive until the blunder 33…Rxd5? (33.Qe7 keeps an edge as White can’t capture the f7-pawn without getting mated on f1.) After that Craig had a clear advantage, but then “old faithful” time pressure set in and Craig trapped his own knight with 40.Kf2?! and 41. Ne7? (40.Ne7 immediately was much better). The finish was certainly entertaining (don’t you just love when the bishop dominates the knight). Warren wins a nice game.

SUMMARY:

Although some good things happened in this match, the Scorpions definitely let one slip away. An extra half a point on anyone of the top 3 boards would have done it, but hindsight is always 20-20. I liked our aggressiveness as well as our “will to push on” in games like Robby’s. Let’s go get em’ against San Fran and hope for the best!! Go Scorpion Nation…

Week 5 is underway for the Scorpions on Wednesday with a match against the Carolina Cobras. This is a match that had caught my eye from the beginning of the season as my good friend Craig Jones is the manager and usual 4th board for the Cobras. Craig used to live and coach in Tucson for a long time but moved to North Carolina 6 years ago. I have had many talks with Craig about the league and about other teams in the league as well as our respective teams. Now our teams will have to face each other!

Carolina is a team that many expected to finish last in the Eastern Conference but have surprised some people with a 2-2 record from the first four matches with an especially impressive 4-0 win last week versus the struggling New York Knights. Being a clash of teams with 2-2 records in opposite divisions this becomes a very important match for each team as the middle of the season approaches.

Let’s look at the lineups for each team (Photos by Amanda Mateer and James Martin):

Board 1
IM Levon Altounian 2535 vs. IM Lev Milman 2502

This is a very interesting matchup pitting two strong International Masters against one another. These two have played once before in the 2005 US Championships a while back that ended in a draw. However, considering Levon’s strength playing White and Milman’s impressive win last week against GM Shabalov this game should be anything but peaceful.

Board 2
FM Oleg Zaikov 2376 vs. IM Mark Ginsburg 2410

Another close match of an experienced International Master that has been on the scene for a couple decades versus a strong college student that has done well in the US Chess League in the past. Although Oleg has generally played the most and done best on board 3 in past seasons he does have strong wins over IM Justin Sarkar and FM Todd Andrews on board 2 this season.

Board 3
FM Robby Adamson 2377 vs. FM Ron Simpson 2346

Both of these players have played board 3 most of the season and both come off wins for their respective teams with Robby defeating FM Todd Andrews to help Arizona beat Tennessee and Ron Simpson beating IM Jay Bonin of New York. This is also the first season for both players as Ron Simpson is a new addition to the Cobras. Both are aggressively minded which should create a lot of fireworks!

Board 4
NM Craig Jones 2320 vs. NM Warren Harper 2350

Like all the others, rating wise this matchup is very close. Warren will have a chance to avenge his previous losses in the league while also playing his toughest competitor yet in Craig Jones. Craig comes off a very nice win against WFM Iryna Zenyuk of New York. These two fourth boards are both very strong and pit two of the highest rated 4th boards in the league against one another.

As you can see all four of these games are very close in rating and strength and literally anything is possible. Check out the match live at the University of Arizona, Cesar Chavez Building (5th Floor) 1110 E James E. Rogers Way Tucson, AZ or on ICC at 6:00 PM AZ time. Go Scorpions !

Lets take a quick look at Week 5 – my predictions will be brief.
For Monday matches -

1. Queens vs. NY Knights

I am calling the upset here (upset because Queens is the lone 4-0 team) – NY will overcome last week’s debacle and prevail over Queens 2.5-1.5

2. Miami vs. Tennessee

Winless Tennessee, riding the Ehlvest wave, will bounce back and win their first match. 2.5-1.5

For Wednesday matches -

3. Philly – New Jersey

NJ trots out an obnoxious 2484 rating advantage, and proves its worth 3-1 (again, if Philly has any chance Kudrin has to beat Benjamin).

4. Baltimore vs. Chicago

No GM this time for Baltimore = no victory. Chicago wins this one 2.5-1.5, though 3-1would not surprise me.

5. San Francisco – Boston

Easily the best match of the night. GM-Elect Vinay Bhat against LarryC will be an exciting one. Shankland – Esserman should be a tactical slugfest between 2 of the hottest players over this past summer. I am going to predict 2-2 tie.

6. Seattle – Dallas

This loses a little bit of luster because Seattle is not using 2 GM lineup but still this looks like an interesting match. Seattle has a chance to upset the champs but I am going to wimp out here and call this a tie 2-2.

7. Arizona – Carolina

Do you even have to ask what I think? Arizona wins 2.5-1.5.

Let’s look quickly to see how I did on my predictions. I think I did pretty well overall but of course the league always has surprises.

Monday Matches -

Baltimore Kingfishers vs Queens Pioneers Queens won 3-1, I predicted 2.5-1.5

2. Seattle Sluggers vs Chicago Blaze Seattle won 2.5-1.5, I predicted the same

I was correct in predicting who won both of these matches, though I did think Baltimore would fare a little better. This easily could have been a 3.5/4 match had Vovsha accepted the draw offered or perhaps even won in a game where he was clearly pressing.

Although Tate took care of business against the youngster Michael Lee, Chicago did not fare that well on the other boards. I have not analyzed Mitkov’s interesting game against Nakamura, but it seemed to be very complex, where Hikaru excels, even if the computer analysis might beat otherwise. Remember, computer analysis is not really relevant in a lot of these games because you are dealing with humans!

3. New Jersey Knockouts vs Boston Blitz New Jersey won 3-1, I predicted a tie

I didnt see this coming at all. I thought Esserman was a lock to win given his current hot streak, but I didnt see the other 3 games ending in such disasterous fashion for Boston. LarryC may not have had his ice coffee before the game – the only possible explanation for losing a piece and having to sac his Q. Boards 2 and 3 pressed given the match situation and it just didnt work out.

4. Carolina Cobras vs New York Knights Carolina won 4-0, I predicted tie 2-2

The Surprise of the 2008 Season. If anyone saw this coming, I want to know who they are, their social security number, and their hottest stock tip. A 4-0 sweep is a very uncommon occurrence no matter who the losing team is, and completely unexpected given the usual strength of the NY team. Congrats to Carolina (our next opponent). NY should bounce back from this forgettable performance though they need to start putting wins together in the East division.

FYI: Did you know that Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals are 2-0?? Say it aint so. I fully expect AZ to lay their usual egg now that they are playing a real team (Redskins).

5. Dallas Destiny vs Miami Sharks Dallas won 2.5-1.5, I predicted a tie

The games here looked very competitive. Dallas continues to impress, this time beating USCL guru Becerra, while the other games all ended in fighting draws.

6. Philadelphia Inventors vs San Francisco Mechanics San Francisco won 3.5-0.5, I predicted SF wins 3-1

Youth was served with wins on boards 3 and 4 from Shanky and Danky. Kudrin never had a chance for any real edge against Wolff, and thus, there went Philly’s chances. On a brighter note my Phillies have a good chance to make the playoffs.

7. Tennessee Tempo vs Arizona Scorpions Arizona won 2.5-1.5, I predicted the same

Congrats to my Scorpions. We defeated a tough Tempo team by a close margin. Kudos for Joel Johnson’s excellent surprise against FM John Bick, as well as IM Rogelio Barcenilla, even though he lost, for facing 2 strong GMs back to back weeks with black, this week Jan Ehlvest (thanks for black- is it time for my root canal?).
Until next week!

Week 3 didnt go too hot, as my Scorpions lost a tough one and I didnt predict very well. This is much tougher than it looks! Lets take a look at each match and see if I can do better. Please note that since I am picking the Scorpions to win every match we play, if the team wins, my predictions will improve!

1. Baltimore Kingfishers vs Queens Pioneers

Tough Matchup for Baltimore. If they are to have a chance, GM Blehm needs a win especially with white, and Zimmer needs to come up big against ultra-hot Parker Zhao. Lenderman on board 2 gives Queens the ultimate edge and thus moves Queens to 4-0. Queens wins 2.5-1.5.

2. Seattle Sluggers vs Chicago Blaze

Shouldnt a 2 GM lineup be illegal? The same could be said when Chicago puts an IM, Angelo Young, on board 4 – something they choose not to do, figuring they needed a GM to play Naka. Nakamura has the edge with white, nice record against Mitkov, etc. Jan has his hands full with Serper, though he is facing him with the white pieces. I am really interested to see board 3 encounter with young and improving Michael Lee, and Emory “I am the World” (expletives omitted) Tate. Seattle wins 2.5-1.5

3. New Jersey Knockouts vs Boston Blitz

Nice matchup between American GM’s Joel Benjamin and LarryC, and a clash in style (a decisive result could mean victory for their team). Esserman on board 4 borders on criminal given his incredible performance in Miami last weekend. Close matchups on boards 2 and 3. Hard call here, but I will go with Boston 2.5-1.5 in a very close match.

4. Carolina Cobras vs New York Knights

Depression in NY was averted as the Knights won their first match last week. Meanwhile, on the home front, the Yankees wont make the playoffs, the Knicks cant seem to play any defense at all and may not win the division unless Patrick Ewing comes out of retirement, and the Jets (ok some NY fans are only Giants fans) couldnt beat Brady-less New England – NE with Brady would have won by 40. Carolina will make this close and could pull upset and tie, but the smart pick is the NY Knights give NY something to celebrate and win 2.5-1.5.

5. Dallas Destiny vs Miami Sharks

A sexy matchup here – Dallas seemingly has 8 IM’s on the roster, and this week they play Kuljasevic against super MVP Becerra on board 1. Bart will do his best to shuffle against Marcel Martinez in what should be a slugfest. Board 3 and 4 are both close matchs. I will take the easy way out here and predict a draw 2-2.

6. Philadelphia Inventors vs San Francisco Mechanics

An obnoxious rating advantage for SF. If Philly has a chance, Kudrin needs to win, something that is possible given Wolff’s inactivity. I have to go with the youth of Shanky and Danky. SF wins 3-1.

7. Tennessee Tempo vs Arizona Scorpions

We all hoped Ehlvest would be Elvis here and not play against us, but Rogelio is a tough cookie. AZ is also pleased to welcome NM Joel Johnson to the team. Even though we are underdogs overall, I can’t pick against my team – AZ wins 2.5-1.5. Go Scorpions!

Now that the US Chess League is in full swing, I am going to give my predictions for the matches. This should be an interesting exercise. Without further ado, here are my Week 3 predictions (unfortunately I am too late for Monday ones):

New York Knights vs Philadelphia Inventors

NY Knights are a talented team, way too talented to start the season 0-3. They will find a way to win their first match. NY wins 2.5-1.5.

Carolina Cobras vs Baltimore Kingfishers

Both teams need a win here. I give an extremely slight edge to Baltimore here, but it wont be enough. I see a tie here, 2-2.

Chicago Blaze vs Tennessee Tempo

GM Mitkov makes his debut for Chicago. This will be closer than most people think. I give Chicago a small edge here, by 2.5-1.5 margin, though it will not surprise me if Tennessee ties or even pulls the upset.

Queens Pioneers vs Arizona Scorpions

I am not picking against my beloved team. AZ plays a solid match and wins in a squeaker, 2.5-1.5. Go Scorpions!

Seattle Sluggers vs New Jersey Knockouts

The best match of the night! I have gone back and forth on this one in my mind. Nakamura should win, especially with the white pieces. However, Joel is a tough cookie and Naka did not fare well in the USCL last year. I expect Naka will come in with a renewed attitude for his new team. Gulko, a sick 2nd board, should win on 2nd board and so it comes down to board 3 and 4. I gotta go with Mackenzie Molner having a small edge on board 3, with a tossup on 4th, and therefore I will pick NJ 2.5-1.5.

Root us on, this time from Mesa!!