The third week of Predictions between the Managers is below! The scores after the first week were tied 19-19 but after the second week’s disastrous result from myself (Leo) the score is now Leo 36 – Craig 42.  Good luck trying to criticize these predictions!

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Welcome to the 2009 United States Chess League!  I will be providing predictions on all of the matches each week (though I may duck predicting for the Arizona Scorpions some weeks, since I might be biased).  Please note in my predictions that I do not mean to be too critical of any team or player on a particular match – just one person’s thoughts. Without further ado, here are the predictions for Week 1.

Queens Pioneers v. Boston Blitz

Boston has a nice average rating advantage in this match (2461 to 2401). A nice GM match-up on board 1 with Alexander Stripunsky vs. Larry Christiansen. As happens so often in a game between 2 strong GM’s, the game can be a push. I think Queens needs a victory from Stripunsky in order to win the match. GM Perelshteyn with white against IM Eli Vovsha gives Boston the upper hand. On Board 3, IM Marc Esserman has a rating edge against FM Andrei Zaremba, but Andrei has white, so this is probably a push. Board 4 features expert Shaun Smith and youngster, Andrew Wang – this game might well decide the match. Boston wins 2.5-1.5

Miami Sharks v. Dallas Destiny

Miami has a big advantage both in strength (GM vs. IM), and color (Julio has white). I am looking forward to seeing what GM Julio Becerra plays against IM John Bartholomew’s world-famous Scandinavian Defense (1.e4 d5 2.ed Qd5). Board 2 features new UTD student and USCL rookie, Daniel Ludwig against  FM Bruci Lopez. White has a strength advantage and has white, so I give Ludwig the edge. Comparing just boards 1 and 2, I think Miami has a small edge. With board 3, Eric Rodriguez has white against FM Keaton Kiewra, who has not played in a while. Keaton is known for good preparation, so it will be interesting to see how this game goes. Finally, Nelson Lopez has color and slight rating advantage over Miguel Recio, someone I know nothing about. Overall, I think Miami has a very small edge here, though a tie would not surprise me. I predict a tie.

San Francisco Mechanics v. Seattle Sluggers

In the final Monday match of the night, San Francisco catches a break against the Nakamura-less Seattle Sluggers. With that being said, Seattle actually out-rates San Francisco  – something that I don’t think matters for this match. Pruess is at a ridiculously low rating of 2410, and having Donaldson on board 3 is as good as its going to get, even though he is facing FM Michael Lee. Board 4 features the debut of SF’s newest master, twelve year old, Yian Liou. Overall, I predict a 2-2 tie.

New York Knights v. New Jersey Knockouts

Upon a quick look at this first match of Wednesday, I was amazed at how stacked and high rated NY is. Kacheisvili v Benjamin is a great board 1 match-up, and Pascal Charbonneau on board 2 is quite strong, especially when Pascal has played board 1 many times. What is interesting is that Yaacov Norowitz on board 4 is now higher rated than their board 3, though of course not per the rating list used by NY. With a rating edge on boards 1 and 2, the Shen brothers are going to have to come up big for NJ. I predict NY wins 3-1.

Carolina Cobras v. Baltimore Kingfishers

Carolina by default has to resort to a balanced lineup (Boards 1-4 all within 150 pts of each other) while Baltimore sports GM Kritz, not an easy match for IM Schroer, as well IM Enkhbat, GM Larry Kaufman (Board 3!), and an expert on board 4. For out-ranked Carolina to have a chance, there will be a lot of pressure on the bottom boards (All-Star Ron Simpson and Craig Jones), and Oleg Zaikov will have to continue his incredible USCL success. I predict Carolina falls a little short in this one, and loses 2.5-1.5.

Philadelphia Inventors v. Tennessee Tempo

Philly has upgraded a lot since their disappointing season last year, with abnormally high rated players on boards 2 and 3 (GM Lenderman and IM Bryan Smith). The always dangerous GM Alexander Shabalov will have to carry the day for Tennessee since they are out-ranked on boards 2 and 3. Philly wins 2.5-1.5.

Arizona Scorpions v. Chicago Blaze

Arizona welcomes GM Alejandro Ramirez to board 1, while IM Levon Altounian moves down to board 2. Arizona welcomes the first junior and almost master, twelve year old David Adelberg to the team. Chicago features a balanced lineup lead by GM Mitkov, and 2 IM’s. Arizona wins a squeaker, 2.5-1.5.

SUMMARY OF WEEK 1 PREDICTIONS

Queens Pioneers v. Boston Blitz            Boston wins 2.5-1.5.

Miami Sharks v. Dallas Destiny               Tie 2-2.

San Francisco v. Seattle Sluggers           Tie 2-2.

NY Knights v. New Jersey Knockouts   NY Knights wins 3-1

Carolina Cobras v. Baltimore Kingfishers    Baltimore wins 2.5-1.5

Philadelphia Inventory v. TN Tempo     Philly wins 2.5-1.5

AZ Scorpions v. Chicago Blaze                  Arizona wins 2.5-1.5

A quick look at the matchups for Week 7.

Monday Matchups:

1. Boston Blitz vs New York Knights

Boston bounces back to beat NY – Boston wins 2.5-1.5.

2. Queens Pioneers vs New Jersey Knockouts

NJ hands Queens its 2nd loss in a row. Gulko on 2nd board is a bigger edge for NJ than Lenderman on 3rd vs Ippolito. NJ knocks out Queens 2.5-1.5.

3. Tennessee Tempo vs Chicago Blaze

I picked Tennessee to win 2 straight weeks, but without Ehlvest, Chicago wins 3-1.

4. San Francisco Mechanics vs Seattle Sluggers

Big match for Seattle with the G-Double Lineup. Going safe here, Seattle and San Fran battle to a tie 2-2.

Wednesday Matchups:

5. Baltimore Kingfishers vs Carolina Cobras

Carolina can put a stamp on their playoff ticket with a win – it doesnt happen this week. Yes, another tie match. Baltimore and Carolina fight to a 2-2 tie.

6. Dallas Destiny vs Philadelphia Inventors

Dallas faces a tough lineup this week against a Philly team that might creep back into playoff contention, and draws Philly 2-2. In much better and more exciting news, the Phillies beat Milwaukee!

7. Arizona Scorpions vs Miami Sharks

AZ wins 2.5-1.5. Go Scorpions!

A very quick look at Week 6

Monday Matches:

AZ over San Francisco 2.5-1.5 (Isnt a Scorpion more threatening than a Mechanic? Go Scorpions!

Seattle over NY 3-1 (2 GMs (Nakaserper) is greater than 1 GM (Fedorowicz) Therefore Seattle wins)

Wednesday Matches:

Carolina ties Queens 2-2 (Carolina may win this one, especially because of Queens’ weaker than usual lineup)

NJ over Baltimore 2.5-1.5 (NJ is loaded and will show their stuff against a struggling Baltimore team)

Boston over Philly 2.5-1.5 (Philly has a chance here if Kudrin can defeat Jorge, if not, turn out the lights on the Inventors, and say “Hello Phillies”)

Miami ties Chicago 2-2 (This should be a very competitive match – both teams need it)

Tennessee over Dallas 2.5-1.5 (TN really has a great chance to win this match, given the great success of the Ehlvesanator.

Until next week….

Lets take a quick look at Week 5 – my predictions will be brief.
For Monday matches -

1. Queens vs. NY Knights

I am calling the upset here (upset because Queens is the lone 4-0 team) – NY will overcome last week’s debacle and prevail over Queens 2.5-1.5

2. Miami vs. Tennessee

Winless Tennessee, riding the Ehlvest wave, will bounce back and win their first match. 2.5-1.5

For Wednesday matches -

3. Philly – New Jersey

NJ trots out an obnoxious 2484 rating advantage, and proves its worth 3-1 (again, if Philly has any chance Kudrin has to beat Benjamin).

4. Baltimore vs. Chicago

No GM this time for Baltimore = no victory. Chicago wins this one 2.5-1.5, though 3-1would not surprise me.

5. San Francisco – Boston

Easily the best match of the night. GM-Elect Vinay Bhat against LarryC will be an exciting one. Shankland – Esserman should be a tactical slugfest between 2 of the hottest players over this past summer. I am going to predict 2-2 tie.

6. Seattle – Dallas

This loses a little bit of luster because Seattle is not using 2 GM lineup but still this looks like an interesting match. Seattle has a chance to upset the champs but I am going to wimp out here and call this a tie 2-2.

7. Arizona – Carolina

Do you even have to ask what I think? Arizona wins 2.5-1.5.

Let’s look quickly to see how I did on my predictions. I think I did pretty well overall but of course the league always has surprises.

Monday Matches -

Baltimore Kingfishers vs Queens Pioneers Queens won 3-1, I predicted 2.5-1.5

2. Seattle Sluggers vs Chicago Blaze Seattle won 2.5-1.5, I predicted the same

I was correct in predicting who won both of these matches, though I did think Baltimore would fare a little better. This easily could have been a 3.5/4 match had Vovsha accepted the draw offered or perhaps even won in a game where he was clearly pressing.

Although Tate took care of business against the youngster Michael Lee, Chicago did not fare that well on the other boards. I have not analyzed Mitkov’s interesting game against Nakamura, but it seemed to be very complex, where Hikaru excels, even if the computer analysis might beat otherwise. Remember, computer analysis is not really relevant in a lot of these games because you are dealing with humans!

3. New Jersey Knockouts vs Boston Blitz New Jersey won 3-1, I predicted a tie

I didnt see this coming at all. I thought Esserman was a lock to win given his current hot streak, but I didnt see the other 3 games ending in such disasterous fashion for Boston. LarryC may not have had his ice coffee before the game – the only possible explanation for losing a piece and having to sac his Q. Boards 2 and 3 pressed given the match situation and it just didnt work out.

4. Carolina Cobras vs New York Knights Carolina won 4-0, I predicted tie 2-2

The Surprise of the 2008 Season. If anyone saw this coming, I want to know who they are, their social security number, and their hottest stock tip. A 4-0 sweep is a very uncommon occurrence no matter who the losing team is, and completely unexpected given the usual strength of the NY team. Congrats to Carolina (our next opponent). NY should bounce back from this forgettable performance though they need to start putting wins together in the East division.

FYI: Did you know that Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals are 2-0?? Say it aint so. I fully expect AZ to lay their usual egg now that they are playing a real team (Redskins).

5. Dallas Destiny vs Miami Sharks Dallas won 2.5-1.5, I predicted a tie

The games here looked very competitive. Dallas continues to impress, this time beating USCL guru Becerra, while the other games all ended in fighting draws.

6. Philadelphia Inventors vs San Francisco Mechanics San Francisco won 3.5-0.5, I predicted SF wins 3-1

Youth was served with wins on boards 3 and 4 from Shanky and Danky. Kudrin never had a chance for any real edge against Wolff, and thus, there went Philly’s chances. On a brighter note my Phillies have a good chance to make the playoffs.

7. Tennessee Tempo vs Arizona Scorpions Arizona won 2.5-1.5, I predicted the same

Congrats to my Scorpions. We defeated a tough Tempo team by a close margin. Kudos for Joel Johnson’s excellent surprise against FM John Bick, as well as IM Rogelio Barcenilla, even though he lost, for facing 2 strong GMs back to back weeks with black, this week Jan Ehlvest (thanks for black- is it time for my root canal?).
Until next week!

Week 3 didnt go too hot, as my Scorpions lost a tough one and I didnt predict very well. This is much tougher than it looks! Lets take a look at each match and see if I can do better. Please note that since I am picking the Scorpions to win every match we play, if the team wins, my predictions will improve!

1. Baltimore Kingfishers vs Queens Pioneers

Tough Matchup for Baltimore. If they are to have a chance, GM Blehm needs a win especially with white, and Zimmer needs to come up big against ultra-hot Parker Zhao. Lenderman on board 2 gives Queens the ultimate edge and thus moves Queens to 4-0. Queens wins 2.5-1.5.

2. Seattle Sluggers vs Chicago Blaze

Shouldnt a 2 GM lineup be illegal? The same could be said when Chicago puts an IM, Angelo Young, on board 4 – something they choose not to do, figuring they needed a GM to play Naka. Nakamura has the edge with white, nice record against Mitkov, etc. Jan has his hands full with Serper, though he is facing him with the white pieces. I am really interested to see board 3 encounter with young and improving Michael Lee, and Emory “I am the World” (expletives omitted) Tate. Seattle wins 2.5-1.5

3. New Jersey Knockouts vs Boston Blitz

Nice matchup between American GM’s Joel Benjamin and LarryC, and a clash in style (a decisive result could mean victory for their team). Esserman on board 4 borders on criminal given his incredible performance in Miami last weekend. Close matchups on boards 2 and 3. Hard call here, but I will go with Boston 2.5-1.5 in a very close match.

4. Carolina Cobras vs New York Knights

Depression in NY was averted as the Knights won their first match last week. Meanwhile, on the home front, the Yankees wont make the playoffs, the Knicks cant seem to play any defense at all and may not win the division unless Patrick Ewing comes out of retirement, and the Jets (ok some NY fans are only Giants fans) couldnt beat Brady-less New England – NE with Brady would have won by 40. Carolina will make this close and could pull upset and tie, but the smart pick is the NY Knights give NY something to celebrate and win 2.5-1.5.

5. Dallas Destiny vs Miami Sharks

A sexy matchup here – Dallas seemingly has 8 IM’s on the roster, and this week they play Kuljasevic against super MVP Becerra on board 1. Bart will do his best to shuffle against Marcel Martinez in what should be a slugfest. Board 3 and 4 are both close matchs. I will take the easy way out here and predict a draw 2-2.

6. Philadelphia Inventors vs San Francisco Mechanics

An obnoxious rating advantage for SF. If Philly has a chance, Kudrin needs to win, something that is possible given Wolff’s inactivity. I have to go with the youth of Shanky and Danky. SF wins 3-1.

7. Tennessee Tempo vs Arizona Scorpions

We all hoped Ehlvest would be Elvis here and not play against us, but Rogelio is a tough cookie. AZ is also pleased to welcome NM Joel Johnson to the team. Even though we are underdogs overall, I can’t pick against my team – AZ wins 2.5-1.5. Go Scorpions!

Now that the US Chess League is in full swing, I am going to give my predictions for the matches. This should be an interesting exercise. Without further ado, here are my Week 3 predictions (unfortunately I am too late for Monday ones):

New York Knights vs Philadelphia Inventors

NY Knights are a talented team, way too talented to start the season 0-3. They will find a way to win their first match. NY wins 2.5-1.5.

Carolina Cobras vs Baltimore Kingfishers

Both teams need a win here. I give an extremely slight edge to Baltimore here, but it wont be enough. I see a tie here, 2-2.

Chicago Blaze vs Tennessee Tempo

GM Mitkov makes his debut for Chicago. This will be closer than most people think. I give Chicago a small edge here, by 2.5-1.5 margin, though it will not surprise me if Tennessee ties or even pulls the upset.

Queens Pioneers vs Arizona Scorpions

I am not picking against my beloved team. AZ plays a solid match and wins in a squeaker, 2.5-1.5. Go Scorpions!

Seattle Sluggers vs New Jersey Knockouts

The best match of the night! I have gone back and forth on this one in my mind. Nakamura should win, especially with the white pieces. However, Joel is a tough cookie and Naka did not fare well in the USCL last year. I expect Naka will come in with a renewed attitude for his new team. Gulko, a sick 2nd board, should win on 2nd board and so it comes down to board 3 and 4. I gotta go with Mackenzie Molner having a small edge on board 3, with a tossup on 4th, and therefore I will pick NJ 2.5-1.5.

Root us on, this time from Mesa!!

The Arizona Scorpions look to bounce back from a tough Week 2 loss to the Dallas Destiny when they face off against the undefeated Queens Pioneers (2-0). This week’s match will be played in Mesa at 2222 S. Dobson Road Suite 504 (Building 5), complements of John Lalonde, who has generously donated the use of his business for this week’s match, as well as for future matches held in the area.

With the new playing venue also comes the USCL debut of 2 accomplished Arizona players, International Master Rogelio Barcenilla and National Master and Team Manager Leo Martinez. For those who do not know Rogelio, he is a strong International Master from the Phillippines, who is easily GM strength (I believe he has 2 GM norms) and is rated 2560. Rogelio does not get to play much anymore (which is why he does not have the GM title), but he is a very strong player with both colors.

Leo Martinez (a Junior at the University of Arizona) is our 4th board this week, and in the day was a very accomplished scholastic player. Leo won the K-8 National Championship in 2000 (FM Danny Rensch won the K-9 National Championship the same year – AZ dominance), and won numerous State Titles as an individual as well as for St Gregory High School. Recently, Leo cracked master with a fantastic victory against fellow-Scorpion IM Dionisio Aldama.

Onto the specifics of the match (Scorpions players in bold).

Board 1 – GM Alexander Stripunsky (2664) – IM Rogelio Barcenilla (2560)

This marks Stripunsky’s 2008 debut as well, and I expect him to come after Rogelio, knowing they have a decent rating advantage on this board. Stripunsky, who finished 2nd in the 2004 US Championship behind GM Hikaru Nakamura, is also the team’s manager. Expect an exciting game!

Board 2 – IM Mark Ginsburg (2414) – IM Alex Lenderman (2463)

This should be a very interesting match. I somewhat wish Mark was black so Alex could show off his knowledge of the Smith Morra Gambit, for which Alex recently did some videos on for ICC, against Mark “Theory Expert from the 1980s” Ginsburg. Maybe both can agree that Mark will play a Smith Morra against Alex!

I am quite familiar with Alex as he was on the powerhouse Edward R. Murrow team, which gave the team I coach, Catalina Foothills High School, a run for their money in High School Nationals from 2005-2007, something I personally will never forget. Special Note: Alex won the 2005 World Youth Championship for Under 16 years old, and is currently rated over 2500 USCF.

Board 3 – NM Parker Zhao (2227) – FM Danny Rensch (2411)

Parker, who is coached by Stripunsky, has improved dramatically in the last 6 months, recently cracking 2300 USCF. Last month he scored his first IM norm in the New England Masters. Danny will look to bounce back after last week’s disappointing loss, this time with the black pieces.

Board 4 – NM Leo Martinez (2222)- Benjamin Katz (2101)

Benjamin Katz was a hero for Queens in Week 2 where he scored a minature victory against New Jersey’s NM Victor Shen. Leo will get a break from his management duties and try to give the Scorpions some production from 4th board.

Come by the Phoenix location to support the Arizona Scorpions. We expect there to be some spectators and some live commentary on the games.

The 2008 schedule for the league has just been announced and all the teams Arizona will face.

WEEK 1: Monday, August 25th Arizona Scorpions vs Chicago Blaze 9:30 PM ET

WEEK 2: Wednesday, September 3rd Dallas Destiny vs Arizona Scorpions 9:30 PM ET
(One or two matches from this week may be moved to Tuesday)

WEEK 3: Wednesday, September 10th Queens Pioneers vs Arizona Scorpions 9:00 PM ET

WEEK 4: Wednesday September 17th Tennessee Tempo vs Arizona Scorpions 9:15 PM ET

WEEK 5: Wednesday September 24th Arizona Scorpions vs Carolina Cobras 9:00 PM ET

WEEK 6: Monday, September 29th Arizona Scorpions vs San Francisco Mechanics 9:15 PM ET

WEEK 7: Wednesday, October 8th Arizona Scorpions vs Miami Sharks 9:00 PM ET

WEEK 8: Wednesday, October 15th Seattle Sluggers vs Arizona Scorpions 9:30 PM ET

WEEK 9: Wednesday, October 22nd Chicago Blaze vs Arizona Scorpions 9:30 PM ET

WEEK 10: Wednesday, October 29th Arizona Scorpions vs Seattle Sluggers 9:00 PM ET